USDA’s November WASDE ups U.S. corn and soy production, stocks beyond expectations

Today USDA released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

2023/2024 U.S. Crop Production

USDA is estimating 2023 corn yield to be 174.9 bushels per acre to produce 15.234 billion bushels. Last month’s estimates were for 173 bushels per acre and 15.064 billion bushels. The trade was expecting a corn yield of 173.4 bushels per acre and a total production number of 15.089 billion bushels.

Soybean yield is pegged at 49.9 bushels per acre to produce 4.129 billion bushels. Last month’s estimates were for 49.6 bushels per acre and 4.104 billion bushels. The trade was expecting a yield of 49.6 bushels per acre and a total production number of 4.108 billion bushels.

2023/2024 U.S. ending stocks

The WASDE report pegged the U.S. 2023/2024 corn ending stocks at 2.156 billion bushels vs. the trade's estimate of 2.144 billion and last month's estimate of 2.111 billion bushels.

For soybeans, the U.S. ending stocks were pegged at 245 million bushels vs. the trade's expectation of 225 million bushels. Last month's estimate was also 220 million bushels.

USDA pegged the U.S. wheat ending stocks at 684 million bushels, above the trade's expectation for ending stocks to remain at last month's estimate of 670 million bushels.

2023/2024 World ending stocks

USDA pegged world corn ending stocks for 2023/2024 at 315 million metric tons (mmt) vs. the trade's expectation of 312.2 mmt. Last month USDA pegged ending stocks at 312.4 mmt.

For soybeans, world ending stocks are estimated at 114.5 mmt vs. the trade's expectation of 115.3 mmt. Last month's estimate was for 115.6 mmt.

For wheat, USDA pegged world-ending stocks at 258.7 mmt. This is above the trade's expectation of 257.8 mmt and last month's estimate of 258.1.

More from USDA

Corn

"This month’s 2023/2024 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, domestic use, exports, and ending stocks," says USDA in the report. "Corn production is forecast at 15.2 billion bushels, up 170 million from last month on a 1.9-bushel increase in yield to 174.9 bushels per acre. With larger supplies, feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels to 5.7 billion and corn used for ethanol is raised 25 million bushels to 5.3 billion. Exports are raised 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. With supply rising more than use, corn ending stocks are up 45 million bushels to 2.2 billion.

Soybeans

"The U.S. soybean outlook for 2023/2024 includes increased production and ending stocks," says USDA. "Soybean production is forecast at 4.13 billion bushels, up 25 million on higher yields. The largest production changes are for Wisconsin, Tennessee, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Ohio. With crush and exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks are raised to 245 million bushels."

Wheat

"The outlook for 2023/2024 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, decreased domestic use, unchanged exports, and higher ending stocks," says the report. "Supplies are raised on increased imports, up 10 million bushels to 145 million, on a strong pace to date and expectations for the rest of the marketing year. Total domestic use is projected 4 million bushels lower to 1,155 million, all on a reduction in food use following the release of the latest NASS [National Agricultural Statistics Service] Flour Milling Products report. July-September wheat used in milling is the smallest for this quarter since at least 2014 when NASS began reporting this series. With no other changes to the U.S. balance sheet, projected ending stocks are raised 14 million bushels to 684 million."

Trade Reaction

Naomi Blohm, senior market advisor with Total Farm Marketing: "Corn futures are taking today’s USDA report in stride. While the increase in yield was on the higher end of expectations, a yield increase was already priced into the market. Instead, corn is focused on demand, and on today’s report the USDA confirmed that corn is still king. Demand for all categories was increased!"

Jeremy McCann, account manager with Farmer's Keeper: "Today's WASDE and crop production report was filled with bearish news all around. For both corn and soybeans, bushel per acre and ending stocks increased, indicative of a better than expected harvest and still a lackluster export program. Despite the fairly large market movement in response to reports, today's news is not surprising. Things have been shaping up nicely for American production this fall despite all of the crop scares we faced. The '24 new crop contracts are at profitable levels for the American producer and it would be wise to start looking ahead in order to avoid a situation many farmers were in this year: undersold and looking at a depressed market."

Al Kluis, managing director of Kluis Commodity Advisors: "I was surprised that they increased the soybean yield. I did not expect that, but the weather in South America and what develops there will be more import then this report. You have to be careful when you have low price and a negative report because a lot of it is probably built in. If meal and oil prices stay higher, I don't see much more downside pressure for corn and soybeans because the end users need to keep buying."

Courtesy: Successful Farming